Along these lines, this is the foundation of value betting. The result is the same (1.60), which means that our (enormous) edge is 60% in both cases.

Check this by simply multiplying the odds of 2.00 with the probability of 80% on heads of the first scenario and the 3.20 odds on heads with 50% probability of the second. However, BOTH scenarios will result in the same outcome: our winrates are totally equal. This is not about a combination of the two, betting at 3.20 on heads of a coin that will bring heads by 80% probability! In that case, what kind of stupid would we be not betting a huge chunk of our capital, sparing the “wait and see” precaution that we should normally take before we commit on a betting system?! Again, we deal with two options and two scenarios. In the first case, we expect to win on 8 out of 10 tosses of the coin (instead of 5), while in the second we should win 2.20 units on heads against losing 1 on tails. Of course, on both options we should bet on heads. Imagine that there is a guy so naive who would offer odds at 3.20 on heads.Suppose that we know our coin is tweaked to drop on heads by 80% probability.

Judging by the chart above, this is the point where we may feel a bit grateful of not being unlucky… How to make sure your strategy is a winnerīased on the above, let us proceed to what is most important at the end of the day, by discussing two distinct scenarios: Yet, the most probable outcome will always tend towards the middle as expected: the perfect balance, the zero or breakeven point. We could be lucky to enjoy some profit after 400 bets but we could also be losing some of our capital just as easily.

We definitely know that, because we make the wager on 50% probability with the odds at 2.00. We know that this method will bring neither profit nor loss. However, a number of bettors will stubbornly insist that this system is a winner, given they are up 50 units! It must become clear that because of the outcomes’ randomness, the bettors’ bankroll will always unpredictably deviate from the positive to the negative region and vice versa.Īfter all, the outcome is well defined. None obviously, because the main rule we explained above still applies. Ta-dah! The same cunning strategy put to the test by 100 bettors! Now, what will be your opinion about the betting system? Treasure or trash?

Winning sports betting systems